JPMorgan: Minimum Wage in Türkiye Expected to Rise, but Higher Energy Prices May Offset the Gains

JPMorgan has released a comprehensive economic report outlining its expectations for wages, inflation, and energy costs in Türkiye for 2026. The bank warns that although the minimum wage is likely to increase, rising electricity and natural gas prices may significantly reduce the impact of this raise on households.

1. Minimum Wage Projections for 2026

According to the report, the current net minimum wage for 2025 stands at:
➡ 22,104 Turkish liras

Based on projected scenarios:

If the minimum wage increases by 20%:

➡ New minimum wage would be approximately 26,524 TL

If the minimum wage increases by 25%:

➡ New minimum wage would be approximately 27,630 TL

Thus, JPMorgan expects the 2026 minimum wage to fall within the range of:
26,500 – 27,600 TL

2. Expected Increase in Electricity and Natural Gas Prices

The report also highlights that government-regulated energy prices are likely to rise sharply in 2026:

• Electricity prices: projected to increase by around 20%

• Natural gas prices: projected to increase by around 20%

This will directly affect household bills, heating costs, and production expenses in industry, agriculture, and transportation.

3. Economic Interpretation: What Does This Mean for Citizens?

Even if the minimum wage rises by 20–25%, its actual impact may be limited due to:

• A 20% increase in electricity and gas prices, which will raise the cost of living

• Expected inflation of up to 30% by the end of 2025, which weakens real purchasing power

• Rising production and transportation costs, leading to:

  • Higher prices for goods

  • More expensive services

  • A reduced net benefit for low-income households

In short:

The wage increase may be partially offset by higher energy costs and ongoing inflation.

4. Risks and Structural Challenges Identified by JPMorgan

• Raising wages without improving productivity could fuel additional inflation.

• Minimum-wage earners may not feel a real improvement in their living standards.

• Türkiye needs:

  • Stronger monetary and fiscal reforms

  • Inflation-control measures

  • Support for high-value industries

JPMorgan also notes that the 30% wage increase in 2025 did not prevent inflation from remaining high—raising concerns about the effectiveness of further wage hikes without structural reforms.

Final Summary

• Expected 2026 minimum wage: 26,500 – 27,600 TL

• Projected increase in electricity & gas: ~20%

• Overall impact:
  Wage increases may be considerably weakened by higher living costs, leaving low-income families under continued financial strain.